How it works
From question to payout — the full lifecycle.
Every ShallWe.bet runs through the same five phases. No surprise steps, no hidden fees, no manual intervention.
Create the bet
Pick a question with a verifiable outcome. Define two sides (e.g. “Yes” / “No”, or any custom labels). Set a lock time (when joins close) and an outcome deadline (when the result is knowable). Pick a creator fee between 0% and 5%.
Optionally take a starting position yourself. If you don't, your bet gets a “neutral creator” badge — useful if you want other people to feel confident the question is fair.
Cost to create: nothing beyond gas, which is sponsored. You don't need any USDC to spin one up.
People join either side
Each user picks Side A or Side B and deposits USDC. There's no minimum or maximum. Pools update in real-time on the bet page. Once joined, your position is locked — you can't switch sides or pull out before resolution.
The protocol is pari-mutuel: there is no “line” or “odds” the house sets. Implied odds come from the live ratio of the two pools. If 80% of the pot is on Side A, a Side B winner gets paid out at roughly 4:1 on their stake. Early joiners on the eventual winning side get the best effective odds.
The bet locks
At the lock time, joining closes. The two pool totals are now fixed. Everyone waits for the outcome window to open at the deadline.
Outcome is submitted
The creator submits which side won. From here, one of three things happens:
- Undisputed. If nobody disputes within 48 hours, the outcome is final. Payouts unlock.
- Disputed. Any user can post a 5 USDC bond and become the challenger. Both sides submit evidence. Claude Opus reads the evidence and produces a verdict with a confidence score. If confidence is ≥ 80%, that verdict is final. The bond goes to whichever side Claude agreed with.
- Below threshold. If Claude's confidence is below 80% — meaning the evidence is genuinely ambiguous — a Chainlink VRF coin toss decides it on-chain. Provably random, publicly verifiable.
Creator no-shows (no outcome submitted by the deadline) are also pushed straight to Chainlink VRF.
Winners claim their payout
Each winner's share is calculated as: (their_stake / winning_side_total) × distributable_pot. Click Claim on the bet page or from your dashboard. Funds land in your wallet in seconds.
The distributable pot is the full pot minus the platform fee (1.5%) and the creator fee (whatever the creator set, 0–5%). Both fees come off the top before payouts — winners never lose more than that to fees, and losers don't pay any fee at all (they've already lost their stake).
A worked example
Say the pot is $1,000. Side A has $400, Side B has $600. The creator set a 1% fee.
- Platform fee: $15 (1.5% of $1,000)
- Creator fee: $10 (1% of $1,000)
- Distributable pot: $975
If Side B wins, every Side B participant gets paid back at $975 / $600 = 1.625× their stake. Someone who put in $30 receives $48.75. Someone who put in $300 receives $487.50. Pro rata, every time.
Things to know
- No crypto visible anywhere. You sign in with your phone number. Wallets are managed by Privy. Gas is sponsored by Coinbase Paymaster. You only ever see USD amounts.
- You can't cancel a position after joining. Funds stay in the pool until resolution. If a bet is cancelled by the creator before lock (rare), stakes are refunded.
- The disputer's bond is not a fee. If you successfully dispute, you get your 5 USDC back. If you lose, the bond is paid to the original outcome submitter as compensation for the delay.
- Every verdict has a public reasoning page. Find any bet's verdict at shallwe.bet/v/[id], including the full Claude reasoning, evidence weights, and BaseScan transaction link.
Ready to try it?
Browse live bets or create your own.